When I get asked the same question about an astounding news story twice, in public, in a week, I think it may be representative of something you’d like to know about.
Here’s the story: a fake public opinion poll that made news and could have impacted an election. Read about it here.
And before I weigh in, I want to give you an opportunity to learn from a real expert on polling, Richard Czuba of The Glengariff Group, a frequent collaborator with shared clients. If you really want to understand political polls in 2026, invest the time to listen to this video with the Detroit News, and learn.
Once this past week, I was invited to go on WJR to talk about the fake poll and the PR implications. You can listen to that interview here. I was also asked about it when I spoke to an informal gathering of the Society of Professional Journalists to speak about nonpartisan voter information, amid disinformation (pictured below) and a member of the audience, a journalism professor, asked about this.
Here’s what I think you need to know if this is of interest:
Market research is valuable. Because of the cost, we don’t get it often enough in PR. When we have it, it’s a gift from our clients. But that’s because it’s dependable data we can use to inform strategy and messaging. I’m not talking about whatever used to be gathered with kids holding clipboards standing in front of the mall. I’m talking about professionally-developed questions designed to illuminate, asked of a scientifically-selected audience designed to represent. That’s real market research and that’s basically how real political polls work too. The most valuable ones cost the most money because they’re done right.
But fake polls, where the danger is obvious, as with any fabrication that ends up being presented as truth, are not as pervasive as other polls that are being used simply as narrative-drivers. The on-the-cheap polls that show up in your texts as links, that can be forwarded to anyone and everyone, do not meet research standards. You shouldn’t participate in them and real news organizations shouldn’t report on them (there’s not much, if anything, that can be done about their “results” spreading via social media).
Surveys have always been news stories waiting to happen. I learned that nearly 40 years ago when the first thing I did as a kid trying to learn in a newsroom was open mail looking for newsworthy press releases and, many most of all, interesting surveys. But then, as in most cases now, there’s a burden placed on news seekers with surveys. We have to show the work to journalists and let them know, at the very least, when and how the survey was conducted, to demonstrate that the data can be trusted. The same standards should apply to political polling, despite temptation.
So can you trust political polls? Trust the real ones. Even though we all want to know who’s going to win elections, in the same way the football pregame shows spend hours trying to predict winners, polls can’t always do that. The best ones, just like any reliable market research, give you insight into a moment. But they can still be enlightening, if they’re conducted, selected and presented in the right ways.